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Member of Support Team of Relentless on Jellyfish

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The weather update this evening shows the weather for the next 36 hours

will be much as expected earlier today. There is a low 988mb currently

centered west of Shetland 60 55.00N 003 45.00W. This is expected to

track east to be centered over Stavanger by 2200 on Sunday.

Metoffice buoys K5 are currently showing 18 knots at 280 and K7 is

currently showing 30 knots at 320. This shows the expected situation

emerging. the wind is lighter near the cyclonic centre of the low and

stronger on the edge of the low. The wind at K7 has veered NW as well as

expected.

You can check the current wind strengths and wave heights at Metoffice

buoys via this wind chart

http://weather.ianmillard.com/windycator/

As the low goes east the isobars get a further compressed to the west of

the low and this will produce northerly winds with a base level of 30-35

knots and gusts of 40-45 knots. The wave heights are currently showing as

4.0m on K5 and 5.3m on K7 and this is expected to build to 6.2m wave height

by 1400 on Sunday.

The metoffice is reporting winds Force 6 to 8 with a severe gale 9 at

times. This forecast is consistent with these wind strengths. They also

report sea state will go from rough to very rough (4m-6m) and occasionally

sea state high (6m-9m). The wave models suggest that the sea state may

touch the definition fo high (6m-9m) but it will be at the lower end around

6m.

The wind has started veering round from SW to NW. It is expected to be

firmly in the NW by 0400 Monday and then continue veering to be N by 1000.

the strongest winds seem to be expected between 1000 and 1800 on Sunday.

These winds will be from the N and will be behind the boats still racing.

From Midnight Sunday the wind should start to drop quite rapidly and will

be under 25 knots by 0600 Monday morning and will continue to decline

through the day to 15 knots in the afternoon. From 0200 on Monday expect

the wind to start backing to NW as well as declining in strength.

Dessert, Lula Belle, Saga, British Soldier, Relentless, Rare and Palpatine

are sailing into the teeth of this and will be in for a rough night. But

as the wind goes behind them it will help a bit.

Bank von Bremmen are sailing out of this and should escape the worst.

Swish and Haspa are past the worst of this now and on their way to Ireland.

My next chance to update will be Sunday late evening by which time the

storm will be going away.

Chris Radford

www.chrisradfordnav.wordpress.com

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